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Prices can’t stand at relatively high levels. So the market chose to fall continuously, especially during late September. Now all raw silk months closed below 180,000 yuan per ton. Oct. On Sept. 28 Raw Silk closed at 174900 yuan per ton for October and 176700 yuan for March’08 respectively. The futures sold off heavily and there is a lot of bearish sentiment- at least until now.

According to official statistics, China’s spring cocoon output drops 7.24 percent to 33.2 thousand tons. And the country’s autumn cocoon output is predicted to dramatically fall compared to same period last year. The climate is not good for silkworm growing in September in Zhejiang and Jiangsu provinces. In addition, the government released several policies to boost export. If the picture is so bullish for cocoon and silk, then why has it been selling off so much lately?

One big reason is demand has not been as high as expected in this Olympic year, which has limited the upside trade in silk, at least for now. From macro-economy view, now two factors are at play: the short-term financial crisis and gloomier outlook on the world economy. Prices are following Wall street’s collapse, expecting lower silk consumption in the new season than previously estimated. So back months dramatically fell.

At the same time, large losses suffered by silk reeling enterprises and weather problems lowers mid-autumn cocoon purchase price at 400-500 yuan per 50kg with bad quality in Jiaxing and Huzhou regions. Hence, the most consequence is that many farmers in the above said regions are switching out of less profitable crops like mulberry tree planting and silkworm raising and moving into lucrative market.

Meantime, there is a shortage of good quality raw silk before fresh arrivals.

This industry is subject to periodic fluctuations. Timing is everything.

Daily Chart for Spot month Raw Silk

Unit : 10000 yuan